New Prime Minister: Faced with the Risk of Censorship, Emmanuel Macron at an Impasse

The political class on the verge of a nervous breakdown, a country whose government has resigned for more than fifty days, that is to say “a country at a standstill, which is deleterious”, a member of the outgoing government team is cowardly, disillusioned and as if forbidden. This is the picture that was still offered, on Wednesday, by another long day of political negotiations, hesitations, fifteen-cushion billiards, games of deception, attempts to decipher the positions of one and the other, to unmask what is hidden behind this or that statement or this or that nuance within the different political parties, themselves full of rivals with sometimes divergent objectives.

New element, the former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe made official, Tuesday evening in an interview with “Le Point”, his candidacy for the “next presidential election”. This is anything but a surprise. On the other hand, the timing and especially the fact that the president of the Horizons party, who has already largely distanced himself from Emmanuel Macron, confirms that he is ready, including in the event of an early presidential election, announcing that he considers that the political crisis and this unprecedented post-dissolution deadlock leave Emmanuel Macron no other choice to get out of it than resignation. Despite the fact that the President of the Republic has repeatedly assured that he is there until 2027 and intends to act until the end… Meanwhile, on the side of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on Wednesday, continued to promote the online petition supporting the call for the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron.

The RN, king of ambiguity

Still at the heart of discussions – and hesitations – the gauge of “uncensorability”, according to a close friend of the President of the Republic, the future Prime Minister, Xavier Bertrand, Bernard Cazeneuve or another. This was, in particular, the subject of Emmanuel Macron’s new telephone conversations on Tuesday with the leaders of the right, those of the PS, the ecologists – those of La France insoumise declined – then Marine Le Pen. Same again on Wednesday. “He continues”, soberly says an advisor to the Elysée, Emmanuel Macron looking for the personality who, among the hypotheses he is testing, is the least likely to be censored immediately.

And that’s where the shoe shines. And the National Rally, whose 126 deputies are essential for a motion of censure to pass – seems to be making everyone dance. Wanting to be kingmaker while being king of ambiguity. Will it censure? Will it not censure? “Whoever the future Prime Minister is, he is in the hands of the National Rally,” concedes an outgoing minister, “even if I’m not sure that it would be in their interest to press the button right away and be held responsible for the instability.”

The fact remains that, according to the statements of some and others within the National Rally, the threat of immediate censure against Xavier Bertrand or Bernard Cazeneuve has absolutely not been ruled out. And are the conditions set by Marine Le Pen, which she expressed in “Le Parisien” – a Prime Minister who does not treat the RN “like plague victims” and respects his elected representatives, who commit to introducing proportional representation in the legislative elections, who “does not aggravate the problem of immigration, of insecurity” and who does not “raze the working and modest classes in his budget” – enough to guarantee immediate non-censorship? Everyone fears bluffs.

Roller coaster and impossible zero risk

Hence another roller coaster ride throughout the day on Wednesday. Late Tuesday evening, after the PS national office, during which internal opponents of the First Secretary, Olivier Faure, failed to pass their amendment on the non-censorship a priori of a Cazeneuve government, the popularity of the president of the Hauts-de-France region rose sharply. “Xavier Bertrand, at least, he is not censored by his own people. With Bernard Cazeneuve, it’s an additional difficulty,” said a leading figure in the presidential camp.

But on the right, distrust is the order of the day. On Tuesday morning, Gérard Larcher, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau, during their telephone conversation with Emmanuel Macron on the Xavier Bertrand hypothesis, wanted the head of state to check that he would not be censored quickly. However, on this crucial issue, it seems easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for any applicant to obtain a 100% guarantee. Zero risk does not exist and even in the former majority, many people say that Emmanuel Macron has already let a lot of time pass – too much – before taking his risk. And new names have also appeared or come back, such as that of Michel Barnier.

Also, the possibility of a nomination on Wednesday was, in the evening, definitively ruled out. The tests will continue. “If we have governments that constantly fall, it will be terrible. That is why we must also at least put some responsibility on the backs of the parties. If the right censors someone who comes from the right, the left, someone who comes from the left and the RN censors everyone, they have a responsibility in the instability”, says an outgoing minister. It remains to be seen whether the French will point the finger at the parties in this chaos or at the head of state and its dissolution.